Market Timing is Almost Always a Losing Game

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Buy low, and sell high. Rinse and repeat. Just like stock picking, it’s so easy a caveman could do it.

Market timing seems rather simple at surface level. Just figure out how to determine when stocks or bonds or any asset is priced improperly, and then figure out when exactly things will return to “proper” pricing. With these two pieces of information, an investor can easily hop in and out of various asset classes while making huge sums of money.

Sound great, right? But is market timing a viable investment strategy?

Empirical evidence suggests not. If at all possible, the likelihood of sustained success is slim.

What is Market Timing?

When most people talk about market timing, they are referring to the stock market. The other common asset classes, like bonds and cash, are often a part of market timing strategies, but they are secondary to stocks. This is because stocks fluctuate in value much more frequently and rapidly than the other asset classes, and therefore present the greatest opportunity for gains in the event of successful market timing.

So for this article, we’ll define market timing as any attempt to alter a portfolio’s asset allocation in response to short-term stock market developments. Some common examples:

  • Rotating asset classes — Perhaps the best example of market timing which involves shifting between stocks, bonds, cash, etc. in anticipation of future performance. Examples include holding more cash/bonds in anticipation of a stock market decline, or holding 100% equities when expecting a bull stock market.
  • Rotating equity styles — Examples include shifting from growth to value investing in anticipation of a market decline, or from foreign to domestic equities in anticipation of bad foreign markets.
  • Rotating equity sectors — Examples include shifting between technology stocks and energy stocks in an attempt to be more “defensive.” Or, over-weighting a portfolio with health care stocks because you think that sector will outpace the economy on the whole.
  • Picking individual securities — Stock picking is often part of the strategies listed above.

There are countless other examples.

Is it Really That Difficult?

Professor and Nobel Laureate William Sharpe wanted to identify the percentage of time a market timer would need to be correct to break even relative to a benchmark (index) portfolio. He concluded a market timer must be correct 74% of the time to outperform a passive portfolio at a comparable level of risk. (1)

Subsequent studies have concluded that market timers need to be correct between 70-85% of the time to outperform a comparable passive portfolio, validating Sharpe’s work.

And why is this the case?

Successful market timing requires two components – being in at the right time, and out at the right time. If you miss either move, you’ll under-perform a simple buy and hold strategy. This is what makes market timing nearly impossible.

Consider the following scenario. If the stock market has been on a five year upward march (much like now?), you might conclude that it’s “overvalued” based on some valuation scheme or historical indicator. So you sell most of your stock holdings and move to an alternative liquid investment like cash or short term bonds in anticipation of a stock market correction. The problem is that you’ll miss all the gains produced until that correction. Is there any reason the market can’t continue the upward climb for another few years? I think not.

Even if you get lucky and exit near the peak, you’ll have figure out when to buy after the market corrects. How do you know how big the correction will be? Should you buy when it falls 5%? 10%? How about 20%? There is no way to tell. And there are a couple of dangers here: The market could continue falling even after you buy back in, or you could wait too long and miss the upswing. Most big corrections are quickly followed by big rebounds, and it’s impossible to know when the market has hit rock bottom.

These problems are exacerbated by the fact that a very small number of days account for the bulk of stock market returns.

An investor in the S&P 500 index would have earned an annualized return of 9.22% throughout the 20-year period ending on 12/31/2013, growing a $10,000 investment to $58,352. When the five best-performing days in that time period were missed, the annualized return shrank to 7.00%, with $10,000 growing to $38,710, and if an investor missed the 20 days with the largest gains, the returns were cut down to just 3.02%. If the 40 best performing days were missed, the investor would have lost $1,851, with his $10,000 initial investment eroding in value to just $8,149!

As Professor Estrada summarizes in “Black Swans and Market Timing: How Not To Generate Alpha” (2):

The evidence, based on more than 160,000 daily returns from 15 international equity markets, is clear: Outliers have a massive impact on long-term performance. On average across all 15 markets, missing the best 10 days resulted in portfolios 50.8% less valuable than a passive investment; and avoiding the worst 10 days resulted in portfolios 150.4% more valuable than a passive investment. Given that 10 days represent, in the average market, less than 0.1% of the days considered, the odds against successful market timing are staggering.

Black swans render market timing a goose chase. Attempting to predict the negligible proportion of days that determines an enormous creation or destruction of wealth seems to be a losing proposition. Of the countless strategies that academics and practitioners have devised to generate alpha, market timing seems to be one very unlikely to succeed. Much like going to Vegas, market timing may be an entertaining pastime, but not a good way to make money.

University of Michigan Professor H. Nejat Seyhun shares similar findings (3):

Between 1926 and 1993, more than 99% of the total dollar returns were “earned” during only 5.9% of the months. For the 31-year period from 1963 to 1993, 90 trading days accounted for 95% of the market gains. 

The implications of this study could well be critical for the average investor. By being “out of the market” for as few as even one or two of the best performing months or days over several decades, a portfolio’s return is significantly diminished.

As you can imagine, timing these select few days is nearly impossible for both professional and individual investors.

Market Timing Evidence

Domestic Professionals

If anyone were able to properly forecast market changes and successfully time the market, it should be professionals. Many mutual funds and hedge funds have armies of research analysts attempting to predict the future and outperform the broad market.

They might get lucky a few times, and attract a horde of new investors, but there is very little evidence in favor of long-term market timing.

A group of professors took a look at more than 400 U.S. mutual funds through the period of 1976 – 1994 and found little evidence of market timing ability (4):

After controlling for public information, we find little evidence that the mutual funds have conditional market-timing ability. However, the risk-aversion estimates are imprecise and the power of the tests for timing ability seem low. To corroborate the validity of these findings, which are based on rate of return data, we perform additional tests using the mutual funds’ portfolio holdings. These tests support our conclusions.

Likewise, a separate study conducted by finance professors Jonathan Ingersoll Jr., William N. Goetzmann, and Zoran Ivkovich found similar results (5):

Four tests of timing skill, carried out on a sample of 558 mutual funds, show that very few funds exhibit statistically significant timing skill.

This list of similar findings is quite long, if you’d like to read. (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

Foreign Professionals

Such findings are not unique to U.S. mutual funds. International studies support the same conclusion: very few professional managers can time the market.

Professors Keith Cuthbertson, Dirk Nitzsche, and Niall O’Sullivan assess the market timing performance of more than 800 individual mutual funds in the United Kingdom (11) and find:

We find a relatively small number of funds (around 1%) demonstrate positive market timing ability at 5% significance, while around 19% of funds exhibit negative timing and on average funds mis-time the market. However, controlling for publicly available information we find very little evidence of market timing ability based on private timing signals.

And over in in Greece, professors Philippas and Tsionas come to a similar conclusion after researching Greek mutual funds (12):

Fund managers fail to have market-timing abilities. This finding is in line with the majority of published research.

Guru Predictions

Beyond mutual funds, there are the “gurus” who often make predictions on TV, or sell investment newsletters to foolish investors.

A study by Professors John Graham and Campbell Harvey titled, “Market Timing Ability and Volatility Implied in Investment Newsletters’ Asset Allocation Recommendations” (13) tracked 15,000 predictions made by 237 market-timing newsletters from June 1980 to December 1992. By the end of the period, 94.5% of the newsletters had gone out of business with an average life span of just four years. They concluded:

“There is no evidence that newsletters can time the market. Consistent with mutual fund studies, ‘winners’ rarely win again and ‘losers’ often lose again.”

Individual Investors

Individual investors actually do far worse than professional managers. They tend to invest when everyone else is investing, which is usually near the peak of markets, and sell when everyone else is selling, which is when markets are reaching lows. Indeed, research shows that the largest inflow of investor dollars typically occur immediately after above-average mutual fund or stock performance and immediately before under-performance. Likewise, the largest dollar outflows are observed after market declines, just before upswings. (14) (15) (16) (17) (18)

The data seems to indicate that most investors (despite what they might say) actually follow a buy high, sell low strategy – the exact opposite of a successful market timing strategy. There a number of behavioral flaws that explain the phenomenon, but that’s really not the point.

The point is that market timing is generally a waste of time, effort, resources, and money.

It’s a fact – the great majority of individual investors will be rewarded by choosing a long-term, index investing strategy. Of course there will always be a few who find success timing the market, just as a few will find success winning the lottery.

But why try when the odds are so heavily stacked against us?

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Jeremy
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Jeremy

I would encourage you to Google a paper by Meb Faber called “A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation”. People often make the mistake that market timing is about generating better gains in the markets. Thinking like that misses the point. The value of market timing, like a simple moving average system used by Paul Tudor Jones, is that it helps to minimize the potentially huge drawdowns that people can see when markets tank. The problem with individual investors is that they act in exactly the wrong way at these very difficult times. Many people end up selling their portfolio… Read more »

Bobby Aurora
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Bobby Aurora

I collected market data for the last 28 years and analyzed the following 7 scenarios:
Scenario 1 Buy on 10% drop, Scenario 2 Buy daily, Scenario 3 Buy on 5% drop, Scenario 4 Buy after 5 consecutive losses, Scenario 5 Buy after 3 consecutive losses, Scenario 6 Buy after 3 consecutive gains, and Scenario 7 Buy every paycheck.

I concluded that buying daily and buying every paycheck is most beneficial without worrying about whether the market is high or low. So, you cannot time the market.

You can see my entire analysis and download the Excel at
onemoredime.com/2015/11/05/possible-time-market/

Jason
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Jason

Thanks for the great article! It got me thinking: What about a buy/hold strategy that acknowledges dips/peaks? For instance, let’s say I want to be 80% stocks, 20% bonds, and I use diversified funds like VTI for stock and BND for bonds. Let’s say I’m investing $1000 every month. If the stock market just dropped 2% yesterday (which it often seems to do, and then is back up the next day), wouldn’t I be better off investing all $1000 in VTI for just that month instead of $800? And likewise, if it’s been on a 6-day streak of increases, aren’t… Read more »

John
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John

Very tough indeed. Given retail investors lack the financial sophistication, tools and information of institutional players it’s nearly impossible to make money. After trading fees and being taxes at ordinary income rate it is not an easy feat to beat index benchmarks. Most people are better off just going and staying long.

Jerrym
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Jerrym

Timing the market is a matter of luck but responding to the market could be intelligent. Adjustments are typically made to a portfolio not as an attempt to time the market but in response to how the market, sector, or stock is playing out. Sometimes responding to the market looks like timing. And sometimes what looks like timing is just an investor’s individual response based upon his or her temperament and processing of information. Each investor responds differently. If someone thinks they’re not responding to the market then they’re either not in the market or not alive. But responding to… Read more »

Master Nerd
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Master Nerd

Couldn’t agree more! I’m still in the process of slowly transitioning to an exclusively ETF portfolio, so I have found myself in the situation of debating whether or not to deploy capital into one ETF vs another. In this case, I had to pick between US stocks and Canadian stocks, so I ended up making a very loose guess that for the immediate future the US market would likely perform better. In the end though, my guess doesn’t really matter as I’ll eventually add more to my Canadian ETF as I balance out my portfolio. My logic was that the… Read more »