Market Timing is Almost Always a Losing Game

Investing

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Buy low, and sell high. Rinse and repeat. Just like stock picking, it’s so easy a caveman could do it.

Market timing seems rather simple at surface level. Just figure out how to determine when stocks or bonds or any asset is priced improperly, and then figure out when exactly things will return to “proper” pricing. With these two pieces of information, an investor can easily hop in and out of various asset classes while making huge sums of money.

Sound great, right? But is market timing a viable investment strategy?

Empirical evidence suggests not. If at all possible, the likelihood of sustained success is slim.

What is Market Timing?

When most people talk about market timing, they are referring to the stock market. The other common asset classes, like bonds and cash, are often a part of market timing strategies, but they are secondary to stocks. This is because stocks fluctuate in value much more frequently and rapidly than the other asset classes, and therefore present the greatest opportunity for gains in the event of successful market timing.

So for this article, we’ll define market timing as any attempt to alter a portfolio’s asset allocation in response to short-term stock market developments. Some common examples:

  • Rotating asset classes — Perhaps the best example of market timing which involves shifting between stocks, bonds, cash, etc. in anticipation of future performance. Examples include holding more cash/bonds in anticipation of a stock market decline, or holding 100% equities when expecting a bull stock market.
  • Rotating equity styles — Examples include shifting from growth to value investing in anticipation of a market decline, or from foreign to domestic equities in anticipation of bad foreign markets.
  • Rotating equity sectors — Examples include shifting between technology stocks and energy stocks in an attempt to be more “defensive.” Or, over-weighting a portfolio with health care stocks because you think that sector will outpace the economy on the whole.
  • Picking individual securities — Stock picking is often part of the strategies listed above.

There are countless other examples.

Is it Really That Difficult?

Professor and Nobel Laureate William Sharpe wanted to identify the percentage of time a market timer would need to be correct to break even relative to a benchmark (index) portfolio. He concluded a market timer must be correct 74% of the time to outperform a passive portfolio at a comparable level of risk. (1)

Subsequent studies have concluded that market timers need to be correct between 70-85% of the time to outperform a comparable passive portfolio, validating Sharpe’s work.

And why is this the case?

Successful market timing requires two components – being in at the right time, and out at the right time. If you miss either move, you’ll under-perform a simple buy and hold strategy. This is what makes market timing nearly impossible.

Consider the following scenario. If the stock market has been on a five year upward march (much like now?), you might conclude that it’s “overvalued” based on some valuation scheme or historical indicator. So you sell most of your stock holdings and move to an alternative liquid investment like cash or short term bonds in anticipation of a stock market correction. The problem is that you’ll miss all the gains produced until that correction. Is there any reason the market can’t continue the upward climb for another few years? I think not.

Even if you get lucky and exit near the peak, you’ll have figure out when to buy after the market corrects. How do you know how big the correction will be? Should you buy when it falls 5%? 10%? How about 20%? There is no way to tell. And there are a couple of dangers here: The market could continue falling even after you buy back in, or you could wait too long and miss the upswing. Most big corrections are quickly followed by big rebounds, and it’s impossible to know when the market has hit rock bottom.

These problems are exacerbated by the fact that a very small number of days account for the bulk of stock market returns.

An investor in the S&P 500 index would have earned an annualized return of 9.22% throughout the 20-year period ending on 12/31/2013, growing a $10,000 investment to $58,352. When the five best-performing days in that time period were missed, the annualized return shrank to 7.00%, with $10,000 growing to $38,710, and if an investor missed the 20 days with the largest gains, the returns were cut down to just 3.02%. If the 40 best performing days were missed, the investor would have lost $1,851, with his $10,000 initial investment eroding in value to just $8,149!

As Professor Estrada summarizes in “Black Swans and Market Timing: How Not To Generate Alpha” (2):

The evidence, based on more than 160,000 daily returns from 15 international equity markets, is clear: Outliers have a massive impact on long-term performance. On average across all 15 markets, missing the best 10 days resulted in portfolios 50.8% less valuable than a passive investment; and avoiding the worst 10 days resulted in portfolios 150.4% more valuable than a passive investment. Given that 10 days represent, in the average market, less than 0.1% of the days considered, the odds against successful market timing are staggering.

Black swans render market timing a goose chase. Attempting to predict the negligible proportion of days that determines an enormous creation or destruction of wealth seems to be a losing proposition. Of the countless strategies that academics and practitioners have devised to generate alpha, market timing seems to be one very unlikely to succeed. Much like going to Vegas, market timing may be an entertaining pastime, but not a good way to make money.

University of Michigan Professor H. Nejat Seyhun shares similar findings (3):

Between 1926 and 1993, more than 99% of the total dollar returns were “earned” during only 5.9% of the months. For the 31-year period from 1963 to 1993, 90 trading days accounted for 95% of the market gains. 

The implications of this study could well be critical for the average investor. By being “out of the market” for as few as even one or two of the best performing months or days over several decades, a portfolio’s return is significantly diminished.

As you can imagine, timing these select few days is nearly impossible for both professional and individual investors.

Market Timing Evidence

Domestic Professionals

If anyone were able to properly forecast market changes and successfully time the market, it should be professionals. Many mutual funds and hedge funds have armies of research analysts attempting to predict the future and outperform the broad market.

They might get lucky a few times, and attract a horde of new investors, but there is very little evidence in favor of long-term market timing.

A group of professors took a look at more than 400 U.S. mutual funds through the period of 1976 – 1994 and found little evidence of market timing ability (4):

After controlling for public information, we find little evidence that the mutual funds have conditional market-timing ability. However, the risk-aversion estimates are imprecise and the power of the tests for timing ability seem low. To corroborate the validity of these findings, which are based on rate of return data, we perform additional tests using the mutual funds’ portfolio holdings. These tests support our conclusions.

Likewise, a separate study conducted by finance professors Jonathan Ingersoll Jr., William N. Goetzmann, and Zoran Ivkovich found similar results (5):

Four tests of timing skill, carried out on a sample of 558 mutual funds, show that very few funds exhibit statistically significant timing skill.

This list of similar findings is quite long, if you’d like to read. (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

Foreign Professionals

Such findings are not unique to U.S. mutual funds. International studies support the same conclusion: very few professional managers can time the market.

Professors Keith Cuthbertson, Dirk Nitzsche, and Niall O’Sullivan assess the market timing performance of more than 800 individual mutual funds in the United Kingdom (11) and find:

We find a relatively small number of funds (around 1%) demonstrate positive market timing ability at 5% significance, while around 19% of funds exhibit negative timing and on average funds mis-time the market. However, controlling for publicly available information we find very little evidence of market timing ability based on private timing signals.

And over in in Greece, professors Philippas and Tsionas come to a similar conclusion after researching Greek mutual funds (12):

Fund managers fail to have market-timing abilities. This finding is in line with the majority of published research.

Guru Predictions

Beyond mutual funds, there are the “gurus” who often make predictions on TV, or sell investment newsletters to foolish investors.

A study by Professors John Graham and Campbell Harvey titled, “Market Timing Ability and Volatility Implied in Investment Newsletters’ Asset Allocation Recommendations” (13) tracked 15,000 predictions made by 237 market-timing newsletters from June 1980 to December 1992. By the end of the period, 94.5% of the newsletters had gone out of business with an average life span of just four years. They concluded:

“There is no evidence that newsletters can time the market. Consistent with mutual fund studies, ‘winners’ rarely win again and ‘losers’ often lose again.”

Individual Investors

Individual investors actually do far worse than professional managers. They tend to invest when everyone else is investing, which is usually near the peak of markets, and sell when everyone else is selling, which is when markets are reaching lows. Indeed, research shows that the largest inflow of investor dollars typically occur immediately after above-average mutual fund or stock performance and immediately before under-performance. Likewise, the largest dollar outflows are observed after market declines, just before upswings. (14) (15) (16) (17) (18)

The data seems to indicate that most investors (despite what they might say) actually follow a buy high, sell low strategy – the exact opposite of a successful market timing strategy. There a number of behavioral flaws that explain the phenomenon, but that’s really not the point.

The point is that market timing is generally a waste of time, effort, resources, and money.

It’s a fact – the great majority of individual investors will be rewarded by choosing a long-term, index investing strategy. Of course there will always be a few who find success timing the market, just as a few will find success winning the lottery.

But why try when the odds are so heavily stacked against us?

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Roland
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Roland

Thank you for a really great, well written and relevant article Jacob! I totally agree with your views – but I would really appreciate your comment on some of the more widespread market timing strategies such as those based on momentum or the MA50/200. These mechanical strategies claims to bypass human cognitive bias and is said to have performed well in various back tests (I know, risk of data mining etc) but still – several researchers seems to believe in these methods. Please share your opinions!

Best regards

Roland

Thad
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Thad

Well written post. The allure of timing and thus beating the market seems to appeal to our egos a great deal (and certainly to fund managers’ desire for more of our money). Index, index, index.

Petrish @ Debt Free Martini
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Petrish @ Debt Free Martini

I am probably one of the most conservative person with my money on earth, but I have promised myself that after becoming debt free that I will stretch my legs and arms more in investing. This was really informative in regards to market timing. I learned something today!

Debt Hater
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Debt Hater

Great summary about market timing! You always hear how it’s nearly impossible to time the market, but cool to see all the studies and research that was done to prove it to be true. I’ll have to share this with some people I have tried telling this to 🙂 Even professionals and people that spend all their time researching the market are not that great at it. Kind of scary to know that a majority of the market gains are made in a small time period. Seems that a lot of gains are tied to just getting lucky on when… Read more »

spoonjab
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spoonjab

Your article is very well written. Thank you for taking the time to post.

Question about timing the market in regards to recessions: have you done much research on Yield Curves? Seems like they are good predictors. I don’t know much about them and wanted to get your opinion.

DivHut
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DivHut

I haven’t tired to time the market since I started my dividend investing portfolio back in 2007. No one can guess where we are headed and hindsight is always 20/20. I just keep investing every month through the highs and lows of the market and follow my own investment mantra of adding as much new cash as I can to only dividend paying stocks. True in 2008/9 my whole portfolio was in the red big time, but I held each position and kept adding every month to my portfolio. While the market and my portfolio took a dive I was… Read more »

No Nonsense Landlord
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No Nonsense Landlord

Market Timing is a lost cause. Once in a while you get lucky, but at any given moment, half of the people think it’s going up, and the other half down.

Laurie @wellkeptwallet
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Laurie @wellkeptwallet

Market timing is too much like playing the lotto for my blood. Great post on the fine print in this area, Jacob! I’ll stick with my index funds, thank you very much. 🙂

Tawcan
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Tawcan

Great post, making sure that you rebalance the portfolio will ensure that your portfolio is doing well in the long run. Dollar cost averaging is another great way to avoid market timing.

Debt and the Girl
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Debt and the Girl

I think trying to predict the future will only leave you frustrated. Trying to do so will most likely leave you broke from trying. Thanks for the info!

Nathaniel Kidd
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Nathaniel Kidd

Jacob, This is a wealth of information. I have been investing since 2000 and am glad I am still in it through the highs and lows. I have a variety of different investments just to ensure I am well balanced. I agree with your points on market timing as it can play a vital role in your bottom line but I have learned to not react at every bit of highs and lows that I experience. I agree that normally individual investors do much worse than professional managers. In the early years I used a manager but as I have… Read more »

Natalie @ Financegirl
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Natalie @ Financegirl

Excellent information in this post – love the value you’re providing to your readers. “Individual investors actually do far worse than professional managers because they often chase performance.” This is why I don’t try! I invest in ETFs. I am fully aware that I’m not a professional. Even the professionals rarely beat the market.

Alicia @ Monster Piggy Bank
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Alicia @ Monster Piggy Bank

Predicting the future is an impossible task, a fools errand, full of pitfalls. Still we listen and soak in all that is said, we even spend a tremendous amount of money to gain an edge in knowing what maybe just around the corner.

Brad @ How To Save Money
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Brad @ How To Save Money

I’m sure everyone who had bought and held through 2008 completely agrees with you.

Wade
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Wade

Spot on again. Do you think the “savers” need the “spenders” and the “non-market timers” need the “market-timers/heavy traders”?

We are staying the course with a simple and strategic set of index funds. My new purchases 2 times each month are used to keep our Asset Allocation as close as possible to our AA. I know if we have steep drops we might fall a few % off, but so far it has worked. Big changes will require a “real” re-balance.